Should You Buy in Melbourne Now or Wait for Prices to Fall in 2026?
Should you buy in Melbourne now or wait for prices to fall? This guide compares market direction, borrowing capacity, rent, holding periods and property-level risks so buyers can make a decision based on their finances and long-term plans.
There is no universal answer to buy now or wait Melbourne 2026. On 11 August, the RBA held the cash rate at 4.35%. NAB’s August Housing Monitor forecasts combined-capital dwelling values to fall 5% in 2026, with Melbourne and Sydney facing roughly 10% peak-to-trough declines and some recovery from late 2027. ANZ’s latest forecast is more bearish, putting Melbourne’s peak-to-trough fall at 12.8%. (Reserve Bank of Australia)
For owner-occupiers planning to hold for five-plus years, affordability, property quality and a comfortable repayment buffer may matter more than picking the exact bottom. For short-term buyers or anyone borrowing near their limit, waiting can reduce downside risk.
Is It a Good Time to Buy in Melbourne?
Cotality’s July data shows Melbourne dwelling values fell 1.2% over the month, while NAB puts Melbourne about 5.3% below its recent peak. That confirms a downturn, but not a uniform one. (Cotality)
First-home buyers can also read Forge’s guide to buying in Melbourne during the current investor pullback for a closer look at where reduced competition may create opportunities. (Forge Real Estate)
Property Prices Melbourne Forecast: Falls Aren’t Uniform
Buying into a falling market requires a local read. Cotality says upper-quartile values fell 3.2% nationally over the three months to July, while the lower quartile edged 0.3% higher. (Cotality)
Domain recorded a 61% Melbourne auction clearance rate for the week ending 8 August. Forge’s guide to Melbourne auction clearance rates explains why suburb, property type and quality still matter more than one citywide number. (Domain)
The Actual Maths: The True Cost of Waiting
Example only: if you are considering an $800,000 property while renting for $550 a week, waiting 12 months costs about $28,600 in rent. A further 5% property fall equals $40,000.
Waiting wins on paper in that example only if the property actually falls 5% and remains available to you. Rent, interest rates, transaction costs and the specific property can change the result.
Negative Equity for First Home Buyers
Negative equity means the loan balance exceeds the property’s value. A buyer using a 10% deposit starts at a 90% LVR, so a 10%-plus fall leaves much less refinancing flexibility than for a buyer with a 20% deposit. Moneysmart notes that having at least 20% equity generally gives borrowers more scope when switching home loans. (Moneysmart)
What This Means for You
Whether you should wait to buy a house comes down to three factors: holding period, deposit and repayment buffer, and whether the specific suburb and property are still falling or stabilising.
Long-term owner-occupiers should also budget for future liveability. If accessibility may become important, Mobility Access Modifications provides home modification services across Greater Melbourne. (Mobility Access Modifications)
Forge Real Estate’s buyer advocacy can help compare these variables property by property rather than relying on a citywide Melbourne property market 2026 headline.
Forge Real Estate Melbourne can help you blueprint your future by finding the perfect blue-chip property where your lifestyle needs and investment goals converge.
📞 Phone: (03) 91003633
✉️ Email: info@forgeproperty.com.au
🌐 Website: www.forgerealestate.com.au
We offer specialized consultation and can assist in both Mandarin and Cantonese.
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